Now that the dust has settled and the 47th President of the United States has been chosen from the voters, what did we learn from November’s 2024 Presidential Election, and how can those lessons be used in future election betting?

Results

What an election this was! US presidential elections have become more surprising than we ever remember, starting with the 2016 elections and Trump’s entrance into the political field. In 2016, nobody expected him to win the Republican ticket and then the presidency. In 2020, Biden managed to defeat the sitting president, something unusual on its own, with both getting the highest voter turnout in US history. Finally, in 2024, Trump came back by defeating the sitting Vice President Kamala Harris while knocking out Biden from the race earlier. Unlike his 2016 victory, this time, Trump managed to secure the popular vote, with the Republican candidate getting 75,017,613 votes and the Democratic one 77,302,580.

Anyone with little knowledge of the US electoral system knows that the number of votes isn’t a defining factor. It indicates a candidate’s popularity, but the Electoral College seals an election. So, if a candidate wins a state’s popular vote with 51% or 91%, the number of electoral votes he or she will get is the same.

Demographics

Women have been very consistent with their vote in the last few years. Their 2024 preferences mirrored those of 2020. The presence of a woman on the ticket helped, but it didn’t make a difference since that demographic is well attached to the Democratic Party. After all, “Vote Blue no matter Who.”

However, it’s interesting to note that while Kamala secured the Hispanic women's vote, she did so by a much smaller margin than Joe Biden. From 69% with Biden, the Democrats' share of the Hispanic women's vote dropped to 57%, while the Republicans increased their share from 29% to 36%.

In 2024, men changed the game, specifically Hispanic and Black men. White men voted overwhelmingly for Trump, just as in 2020, but with a slight boost this time. Black men voted 71% for Harris and 24% for Trump, securing a 47-point margin, but in 2020, the margin was 82 points in favor of Biden. Lastly, Hispanic men whose vote Biden managed to secure with a significant 34-point margin. In 2024, they voted marginally for the Orange Man, with him getting 50% of the vote and Kamala 49%.

It is evident that despite the candidate being a person of color, the Democratic party failed to convince the people who voted for them in 2020.

Swing States

Anyone with little knowledge of the US electoral system knows that the number of votes isn’t a defining factor. It indicates a candidate’s popularity, but the Electoral College seals an election. So, if a candidate wins a state’s popular vote with 51% or 91%, they will get the same electoral votes. That’s where the swing states kick in.

Unlike California, where it was known before that the Democratic Party would win and Texas, where the same applies to the Republican Party, “Swing States” are those which have historically close calls. Therefore, their final results are only certain hours after the ballots have closed. Namely, those are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In 2020, six out of seven Swing States turned blue, except North Carolina, resulting in Biden and the Democratic Party winning the elections. In 2024, all seven voted red confirming Trump’s big comeback.

Polls & Betting

For multiple election circles, national polls were providing a safe prediction of what to expect. In the last decade or so though, their validity has been damaged beyond repair. The 2016 Election and the Brexit Referendum made it official but similar cases have occurred around the globe. While it isn’t clear what led to this, most people assume it’s related to the demographics that reached out to share their intent. Rural populations, which are overwhelmingly conservative, tend not to participate, while urban populations, overwhelmingly liberal, tend to be overrepresented. As a result, people now look more into political betting markets like Polymarket or Smarkets, which can also be off, but not like polls.

When Biden stepped down, and Kamala took over the Democratic ticket, there was euphoria among the Dems. Biden was too old to compete, and Kamala's entrance into the political race was fresh air for many voters, which gave her the edge for a short period. Specifically, the betting markets had Trump and Kamala alternate the lead from late August to mid-October. Towards the end of October, however, Trump got a clear lead, which he kept until election day, confirming the bookies’ forecast.

It isn’t clear what conclusion to draw from this as there is no way to know whether Kamala’s lead was factual. Nevertheless, in the last month or so, the markets proved correct, suggesting they can continue to be used as a prediction tool.

Lessons Learned

The main lesson from the 2024 US Presidential Election is that politics remain unpredictable, but some golden rules remain. The most important rule is to listen to the people. Trump might be a divisive person, but as he has strong opponents, he also has strong supporters. They secured the Republican ticket for him through the primaries (once more) and eventually returned him to the White House.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris didn’t win the candidacy of the Democratic party, but she was appointed to it after it was evident that Biden couldn’t win. Moreover, it’s important to remember that in the 2020 Democratic Primaries, Kamala performed poorly at best. Her VP years groomed her for the presidency, but it wasn’t enough to get the people’s trust.

The second lesson related to the first is that identity politics aren’t as practical. Despite being part of a minority herself, Kamala performed much worse than Biden, especially among the Hispanics but also among the Blacks. Her presence on the 2020 ticket likely boosted Biden’s overall numbers, but it's one thing running for president and another for vice president. Kamala failed to convince the voters she had what it took to lead the country.

The third lesson is that the economy was, is, and will be the main issue deciding the American people’s vote. Despite the increased budget of the central government, most Americans felt their economic situation worsening, mainly due to the increased inflation, and decided to turn their back on the administration Kamala was representing. Even the Ukraine War should be seen within that context. Unlike Vietnam or Iraq, where the US actively participated in the conflict, and coffins were coming home, so far in Ukraine, there aren’t boots on the ground, officially at least. However, the fact that the central government was administering resources to a war most US citizens didn’t even understand while the situation at home was worsening drove away many voters.

The fourth lesson is that political witch hunts often backfire. Following the 2020 election and the January 6th events in the Capital, many Americans felt the Department of Justice being weaponized against the 45th, a trend which started in 2016 with the Russian Collusion accusation, solid proof of which never surfaced and continued with the Stormy Daniels scandal. We will probably never know what happened with any of these cases, and that’s not of interest to us. What is essential to understand is that the sheer ferocity with which these cases were pushed in the media, combined with the fact they weren’t proven, turned Trump into the victim, at least in the eyes of many Americans. In time, people didn’t stop caring about these cases, but to many, it proved that Trump was accused of political reasons, elevating him even further.

Future of Election Betting

Election betting will remain unpredictable. While Trump and the Republican Party seem to have all the power in their hands, that doesn’t mean they will retain it in the 2025 midterm elections. Historically, Americans tend to vote against the current administration to keep it in check. It remains to be seen whether this shall occur again.

Political sportsbooks like Polymarket once again proved their value in betting. Despite the imbalance caused by Biden stepping down and Kamala running the Democratic ticket, the betting markets were ultimately proved right. Let us not forget that the candidates’ percentages were quite close: 49.8% and 48.3%. In a country with a voting-eligible population of 244 million, that is extraordinary, and we predict that sooner or later, election betting houses will replace polling.

References

Last updated: January 24, 2025

What did we learn from the 2024 Presidential Election?