The 2024 European Elections Odds: Political Betting Overview

Election Process

As we gear up for the 2024 European Elections, it's crucial to understand the election process. The European Parliament is the only EU institution directly elected by citizens, with elections held every five years. Citizens across the EU vote for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), who represent their interests in the EU legislative process.

Following the European Parliament elections, the heads of state or government of the EU member states, known as the European Council, nominate a candidate for President of the European Commission. This nominee presents their vision and program to the European Parliament, where they undergo a process of scrutiny and debate.

The newly elected European Parliament then votes to give confidence to the nominee. An absolute majority of MEPs (at least half of the total number of MEPs plus one) is required for the nominee to be approved as President of the European Commission. This democratic process ensures that the President of the European Commission has the support of the directly elected representatives of the EU citizens.

The President-elect is then formally appointed by the European Council as President of the European Commission. They proceed to select the members of the European Commission, subject to approval by the European Parliament.

Political Landscape Overview

In elections, voters typically cast their votes for candidates representing national parties, but these parties may be aligned with one of the political groups in the European Parliament or may choose to remain independent (Non-Inscrits):

  • European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL/LEFT): Left-wing political group, comprising socialist, communist, and leftist parties.

  • The Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA): Center-left to left-wing political group, focusing on environmental and social justice issues, as well as regionalism.

  • Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): Center-left political group, comprising social democratic and socialist parties.

  • Renew Europe (RE): Centrist political group, advocating for liberal and pro-European policies.

  • European People's Party (EPP): Center-right to right-wing political group, often associated with Christian democratic and conservative parties.

  • European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): Right-wing to conservative political group, promoting Eurosceptic and conservative positions.

  • Identity and Democracy (ID): Far-right political group, advocating for nationalist and Eurosceptic positions.

2024 European Election polls

EU Parliament
EU Parliament

The latest poll aggregation by EuropeElects highlights a significant shift from the center to both the far left and the far right, especially beneficial for ECR (+38%) and ID (+15%), in comparison to the 2019 election.

EU map
EU map

Further down the list of Europe Elects chart aggregator, an insightful chart highlights the leading European Parliament groups across different countries, as revealed by the latest poll:

  • The European People's Party (EPP) emerges as a formidable force, enjoying robust support from Spain, Portugal, Luxembourg, Czechia, Poland, Finland, Latvia, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Slovenia, and Germany.

  • The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) commands significant backing from Sweden, Lithuania, Romania, Belgium, and Malta, underscoring their influence across diverse regions.

  • Dominating the political landscape in France, Netherlands, and Austria, the Identity and Democracy (ID) group showcases its growing prominence and resonance with voters.

  • Renew Europe (RE) boasts strongholds in Estonia and Denmark, reflecting their appeal and vision for a dynamic and forward-looking Europe.

  • With a solid presence in Italy, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) demonstrate their enduring support and commitment to advancing conservative values and reforms.

Consider that although polls provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, they are not infallible and may be subject to biases or inaccuracies. It is crucial to consider the increased discontent of the agricultural sector regarding the Mercosur Free Trade Agreement, which is relatively recent and closely aligned with the upcoming election date. This discontent could potentially impact voter behavior and political outcomes, adding a layer of complexity to the electoral landscape.

2024 European Election Betting Odds

Now, let's get to the fun part - the betting odds. The odds for the 2024 European Elections are constantly changing as new information becomes available.

Currently, the European People's Party (EPP) is the favorite to win the most seats, followed by the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and a tie for the third position between Renew Europe (RE) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

When aggregating the political betting options of the traditional and alternative sportsbooks and prediction markets, the main markets are for political betting on the upcoming European Elections are:

Most seats by political party

As expected EPP has a favorable odds going from 1/7 to 1/8, depending on the market provider. The favorite is followed by S&D at 6 to 7 and for the dark horse the LEFT party has odds of 100 to 150.

EU Comission president

A win by the EPP doesn’t guarantee a reelection for Ursula von der Leyen yet that doesn’t sway the odds as she stands as the favorite with odds of 2/7 to ⅓, followed by Mario Draghi at 7 to 8 and for the dark horse, Christine Lagarde at 25.

Total number of seats for EPP

For those with the lucky numbers, betting on the EPP gaining 171-180 seats has odds of 5/4, followed by 181-190 seats at 13/8. The dark horse in this market is Less than 150 seats for odds of 50.

Most Seats by political party for each country

For those with a stronger grasp of the outcome in their home country or others from the EU, bettors can place bets on the political party that will get the most seats in a particular country. It is advisable to go to the polls and look up the current results for the country in question.

Remember, betting should always be done responsibly. While these predictions provide a starting point, it's essential to stay updated with the latest political developments and adjust your betting strategy accordingly. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

  • Last updated: May 21, 2024
  • Author: Gio