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2024 French Elections Betting Preview

Hence, all eyes will be on the election outcome next month. This is an excellent betting opportunity for bettors. So, if you plan to get in on the action, watch for the latest French election odds.

In the 2024 EU parliamentary election, the French far-right National Rally Party, led by Jordan Bardella, won a significant vote share. Bardella secured 31.5%, twice that of Macron’s Renaissance Party, which won a meager 15.2%. This led to Macron dissolving the National Assembly and calling for snap elections at the end of June.

For those waiting to bet on the French elections, the results signal a significant realignment in French politics. So, before wagering on the upcoming elections, it’s crucial to understand the factors at play to make informed betting decisions.

Reasons Behind the 2024 French Snap Parliamentary Election

President Macron called for a snap election after suffering a shock defeat in the EU parliamentary elections. The election is a call from the French president to voters to make up their minds. For several months, a select few confidants at the Elysee Palace have been discreetly working on possible solutions in case the National Assembly needed to be dissolved before completing a term. Hence, the authorities have contingencies in place to handle this period of uncertainty.

The 577 members of the French National Assembly are elected every five years in single-member constituencies. They are generally held in two rounds. The candidate who receives the most valid votes of the registered electorate moves on to the next phase. If no candidate secures a 25% threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two performers or any candidate who wins over 12.5% of the vote share. A polling session must be underway in the next 20 to 40 days.

Predicting the Outcome of the 2024 French Snap Election

So, here is what the experts think will happen when the results are announced in July. Despite far-right parties sweeping the EU parliamentary election in France, it is unclear if they can outperform Macron’s liberal and central Renaissance Party in the lower house.

However, if Macron fails to secure a clear majority in the National Assembly, he may be forced to form a coalition government where the presidency and the National Assembly have opposing political ideologies. If that happens, Macron could be forced to step down, potentially disrupting his domestic agenda.

By calling a snap election three years before the next presidential election, Macron is throwing the French legislative term out of balance. French parliamentary elections have traditionally been held right after the presidential elections to maintain harmony at the top echelon of French politics.

Historically, each parliamentary election has yielded positive results for the same political party in both the presidential and parliamentary elections. By throwing the clock out of sync, Macron is risking disrupting the French political balance for decades to come.

However, things could fall back in place if the next president, in 2027, decides to dissolve the National Assembly. So, if you wish to bet on Macron, we recommend staying updated with the latest events that could also affect the odds for the prime minister.

Brief Overview of National and European Elections on French Politics

National and European elections play different roles in French politics. The former includes presidential and National Assembly elections and focuses on domestic issues and the incumbent government. These elections generally witness a higher voter turnaround since the outcome directly affects the lives of the French electorate.

European parliamentary elections, on the other hand, allow French citizens to choose the members of the European Parliament (MEPs). These representatives shape EU-wide policies, such as trade, environmental, and immigration regulations. EU parliamentary elections generally witness a lower voter turnout in France. However, this trend has been shifting lately as EU policies affect the everyday lives of French citizens.

History of French National Assembly Elections

The National Assembly was a groundbreaking political organization formed after the French Revolution. Parliamentary elections in France have historically been dynamic events with unpredictable results, propagating the ideal scenario for political betting. So, before placing any bets, you should understand the historical trends to make more informed decisions. On that note, here are the most iconic events in the French National Assembly elections:

1958 French Parliamentary Election

The National Assembly election of 1958 was a pivotal event in French history. It marked the transition from the Fourth to the Fifth Republic. The former was characterized by weak executive power, frequent changes in government, and general political instability due to the aftermath of the Algerian War of Independence.

General Charles de Gaulle, a leading political figure, was asked to lead the French government in June 1958. Gaule demanded a new constitution to provide a greater executive command to counter the Fourth Republic’s instabilities and inefficiencies. The newly formed Union of the New Republic Party, under Gaule’s leadership, won the election by a hefty margin.

The outcome marked the beginning of the Fifth Republic, with the president playing a central role in government. Gaule’s leadership during the period laid the foundation for modern French politics, emphasizing stability, national sovereignty, and a strong state.

1962 French National Assembly Election

The 1962 National Assembly election was a critical event in the Fifth Republic, marked by a major constitutional and political crisis. President Gaulle proposed a referendum to amend the constitution, allowing the president to be elected by direct universal suffrage instead of the electoral college. This controversial move received significant opposition from various political factions.

The National Assembly passed a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Georges Pompidou's government in response to Gaulle’s referendum proposal. This vote dissolved the National Assembly. In response, Gaulle called for new elections, pushing the referendum on direct presidential elections as a central issue.

Gaule’s UNR party secured a majority win in the lower house of the French parliament. This was viewed as the public’s endorsement of Gaule’s proposed constitutional changes. The 1962 election marked a realignment in French politics, with the Gaullists establishing themselves as the dominant force.

1981 French National Assembly Election

The 1981 National Assembly election ushered in a period of left-wing governance after decades of conservative dominance. François Mitterrand of the Socialist Party (PS) won the presidential election, defeating the incumbent President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. Mitterrand's victory was historic, as it marked the first time a socialist had been elected president of the Fifth Republic.

The Socialist Party won 285 out of 491 seats in the National Assembly. However, the French Communist Party (PCF) was still significant as it won 44 seats. Despite not being the leading left-wing force, the socialists needed their support to stay in power. Mitterrand implemented a series of ambitious reforms, like nationalizing key industries, increasing social spending, and improving social welfare.

The success of the socialists in the 1981 elections redefined the French political landscape, leading to greater polarization and the rise of new political dynamics. This shift had long-term implications for French politics, influencing subsequent elections and policy directions.

1993 French National Assembly Election

The 1993 French National Assembly election occurred in the middle of economic difficulties and widespread dissatisfaction with the socialist government. President François Mitterrand had become extremely unpopular due to the economic recession and high unemployment rates.

The Socialist Party had won by a narrow margin in the previous National Assembly election. Therefore, the government faced numerous challenges in implementing new policies due to a lack of a strong majority. The Rally for the Republic (RPR) and the Union for French Democracy (UDF) won 485 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly. This overwhelming victory was one of the most decisive in the Fifth Republic’s history.

This was the second cohabitation in the history of the Fifth Republic. President Mitterrand appointed a right-wing prime minister, Édouard Balladur, to keep his allies happy. Therefore, the president and the prime minister were from opposing political parties. The Balladur government implemented various economic reforms, including privatization of state-owned companies and measures to increase labor market flexibility.

1997 French National Assembly Election

Incumbent President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly in 1997. He believed the right-wing coalition could secure a stronger mandate ahead of the economic and social reforms. But contrary to Chirac's expectations, the results were a significant setback for the right-wing coalition.

Lionel Jospin’s Socialist Party won 255 seats, securing a decisive victory. Along with its allies, the Greens and the PCF, the left-wing coalition secured a majority in the National Assembly with 319 out of 577 seats. The new left-wing government under Jospin implemented policies that differed significantly from the previous right-wing administration.

Key policies included increased social spending, the introduction of the 35-hour workweek, and measures for reducing unemployment. The 1997 election highlighted the volatility of French politics and the risks associated with the early dissolution of the National Assembly. It also underscored the importance of voter sentiment on economic issues.

2017 French National Assembly Elections

Shortly after Emmanuel Macron's victory in the presidential election in May 2017, his newly formed party, La République En Marche! (LREM), wanted to secure a majority in the National Assembly to implement his reformist agenda. Considering his popularity among the French electorate, Macron’s odds of securing a majority in the National Assembly were pretty high.

La République En Marche! won 308 out of 577 seats, securing an outright majority. This was a remarkable achievement for a party that was barely a year old at the time of the election. The strong majority gave Macron a free hand to pursue his reform agenda, including labor market reforms, changes to the tax system, and strengthening the European Union.

One of Macron’s key priorities was to reform French labor laws to make the market more flexible and competitive. The government reduced public spending, cut taxes, and promoted entrepreneurship and innovation. Macron’s pro-European stance meant his government was expected to push for deeper integration within the EU.

Prominent Political Parties and Notable Leaders to Watch in 2024

Want to bet on the upcoming snap election? Here is an overview of the top political parties and leaders to watch for. Whether you want to bet on Le Pen or find all the next French parliamentary election odds, you will find the latest updates here.

Renaissance (RE)

Renaissance, originally La République En Marche!, was founded by the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. It is a centrist party advocating for progressive economic reforms, social liberalism, and strong European integration. It aims to transcend traditional left-right political divisions. Macron's election as president in 2017 and the party's strong performance in the 2017 and 2022 legislative elections established Renaissance as a major force in French politics.

The Republicans (LR)

The Republicans are a center-right party that succeeded the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Notable figures include Nicolas Sarkozy (former president), François Fillon, and Laurent Wauquiez. The party promotes conservative policies on economic issues, social values, and law and order. LR is the main party of the French right. Their current leader is Éric Ciotti.

National Rally (RN)

The National Rally, formerly known as the National Front (FN), is a far-right party advocating strict immigration controls, national sovereignty, and Euroscepticism. Marine Le Pen has led the party through significant electoral successes, including reaching the presidential run-off in 2017 and 2022. The party’s highlights include Marine Le Pen's strong performances in presidential elections and Jordan Bardella's able leadership.

Socialist Party (PS)

The Socialist Party is a center-left political party advocating social democracy, economic equality, and welfare state policies. They have historically been one of the two major parties in France, although their influence has faded in recent years. François Hollande’s presidency from 2012 to 2017 and significant social and economic reforms during its governance are the party’s highlights.

La France Insoumise (FI)

La France Insoumise is a far-left political movement advocating for radical economic reforms, environmental sustainability, social justice, and a break from neoliberal policies. It emphasizes grassroots activism and direct democracy. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been their most prominent leader, particularly noted for his strong showing in the 2017 and 2022 French presidential elections.

Democratic Movement (MoDem)

The Democratic Movement is a centrist political party that promotes pro-European, socially liberal, and economically moderate policies. It often acts as a key ally to LREM/Renaissance, supporting Macron's government in parliament. Their current leader is François Bayrou.

Horizons

Horizons is a center-right political party founded by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. The party focuses on pragmatic and reformist policies, like addressing economic and social challenges with a forward-looking approach. Édouard Philippe is their current leader.

Left Party (PG)

Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marc Dolez established the party in 2009. The leftist party advocates for democratic socialism, eco-socialism, and a strong welfare state. The PG was created in response to perceived neoliberal shifts within the Socialist Party (PS). Notable personas include Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Martine Billard.

The Ecologists (LE)

The Ecologists in France advocate for environmental protection, sustainable development, and green policies. They focus on issues like climate change, renewable energy, and biodiversity conservation. LE is the primary green party and has been quite successful in both national and European elections.

French Communist Party (PCF)

The French Communist Party is a left-wing party advocating for socialism, workers' rights, and anti-capitalist policies. The PCF advocates nationalizing key industries, progressive taxation, and robust social welfare programs. It opposes neoliberal economic policies and austerity measures. Their current leader is Fabien Roussel.

Next French Election Odds in 2024 and Betting Markets

Looking for the available betting markets in the upcoming snap election? Here is the complete list of available bet types. Whether you want to bet on Bardella or analyze the latest Le Pen odds, we provide all the options.

Overall Majority

In this betting market, bettors wager on whether a single party or coalition will win an outright majority of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. You can track public opinion polls and expert insights and watch the latest news to predict which party or coalition has a better chance of securing the most seats.

Party Seat Counts

You can bet on the number of seats each major party will win. This market includes bets on the party with the most seats, the exact number of seats a party will win, or whether a party will exceed or fall short of a specific seat threshold.

Constituency Betting

In this market, bettors can wager on the outcomes in individual constituencies, including which party will win a specific constituency or the margins of victory in specific constituencies.

Turnout Betting

This market accepts wagers on the voter turnout percentage, overall or in specific regions. High-profile elections typically see higher turnouts, while factors like poor weather can lower the total voting turnout.

First-Round vs Second-Round Betting

Since French legislative elections often require a second round if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, bettors can wager on whether certain constituencies will go to a second round or the results of the second-round matchups.

Leader Performance

You can wager on the performance of party leaders in their constituencies and their overall influence on their party's results. Remember, leaders with strong public approval ratings can sway voters. Watch for strong performances in televised debates and positive or negative media attention.

Coalition Betting

Players can bet on coalition governments and their composition. Probable bets include which parties will form a coalition, the likelihood of a minority or majority government, and more.

Most Seats Without a Majority

In this market, you can wager on which party will win the most seats but not an outright majority. Strong third parties often prevent any single party from winning a majority. You need to have a strong command of the French two-round electoral system and understand its impact on seat distribution to capitalize on this market.

Runoff Elections

In cases where no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, you can bet on the outcomes of runoff elections. Watch for endorsements from eliminated candidates, as they can greatly influence voter sentiment.

Top 3 Sportsbooks with the Best Next French Election Betting Odds

Finding the ideal online bookmaker is essential for the best betting experience. Reputable platforms offer diverse political betting markets, accept multiple payment methods, have fair wagering requirements, and give you the most competitive odds. Here are our three favorite bookmakers:

Betway

Launched in 2006, Betway is among the world’s best online sportsbooks. It is operated by Betway Limited, a company registered in Malta and licensed by the MGA and the UKGC. Further, Betway is eCOGRA-certified and popular among both seasoned and amateur political bettors.

PaddyPower

Paddy Power is a reputable sportsbook based in Dublin, Ireland. Established in 1988, the company has UKGC and MGA betting licenses. It is a top-quality online betting platform offering diverse markets.

Betfair

Established in 2000, Betfair has also become one of the most sought-after bookmakers. The platform is owned by Flutter Entertainment and licensed by many authorities. In addition, Betfair has a broad election betting market selection.

2024 French Parliamentary Elections Bet Suggestions

Make the most of the upcoming snap elections. Our experts suggest the following bets for maximum entertainment at minimum risk.

Overall Majority Bet

French legislative elections often result in fragmented parliaments due to the multiparty system and diverse political landscape. So, you can bet that no party or coalition will win an outright majority.

Party Seat Counts Bet

You can also bet that Renaissance will secure the most seats but fall short of a majority. Given President Macron's past success and the party's central position in French politics, the party will likely remain a strong contender, though a full majority might be challenging without broader alliances.

Turnout Betting

Consider betting that voter turnout will exceed 60%. French Assembly elections typically see substantial voter engagement, especially when the political climate is contentious and the stakes are high. Recent events and increased public interest in domestic policies suggest a high turnout.

Combo Bet: Renaissance Wins the Most Seats + National Rally Perform Better Than Last Time + No Outright Majority for Any Party

Combining these bets leverages the likelihood of Renaissance's continued influence, the growing support for the National Rally, and the probability of a fragmented parliament without a clear majority. We think this combination reflects France’s current political dynamics, where no single party dominates and voter support is distributed among multiple parties.

  • Last updated: June 20, 2024