Canadian Federal Elections are nationwide votes to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to the House of Commons, the legislative body that forms Canada’s government. Voters in 338 ridings (districts) choose their local MP, and the party winning the most seats typically forms the government.

What Do They Decide?

Government Control: The party with the most seats selects the Prime Minister (no direct PM vote).
Policy Direction: Elections determine laws on taxes, healthcare, immigration, and climate policy.
Majority vs. Minority Rule:
- Majority (170+ seats): Full control.
- Minority: Requires opposition support to pass laws.

How Often Do They Happen?

Fixed-Date System: Every 4 years (next: October 20, 2025).
Early Elections Possible: If the government loses a confidence vote or calls a snap election (e.g., 2021 election was 2 years early).

When Is the Next Canadian Federal Election?

The next Canadian Federal Election is scheduled for October 20, 2025, as per Canada’s fixed-date election law. However, an early election could occur if:

The minority Liberal government loses a confidence vote.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calls a snap election (considered unlikely before 2025).

Why Is the 2025 Canadian Federal Election Taking Place Now?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals hold a minority government, meaning they rely on opposition parties (like the NDP) to pass laws. If the government loses a confidence vote (e.g., on budgets or key bills), an early election could be triggered before 2025.

Post-WW2 History of Canadian Federal Elections & Key Changes Since 1990

Canada’s federal elections have evolved significantly since World War II, with major shifts in party dominance, electoral rules, and political dynamics.

Post-WW2 Political Landscape (1945–1990)

Liberal Dominance (1945–1984): The Liberal Party ruled for most of this period, with leaders like Louis St. Laurent, Pierre Trudeau, and Jean Chrétien.
Progressive Conservatives (PCs): Occasionally won (e.g., John Diefenbaker in 1958, Brian Mulroney in 1984).
Rise of Regional Parties (1970s–1990s): The Bloc Québécois (1991) and Reform Party (1987) emerged, fracturing the conservative vote.
1993 Election Disaster: PCs collapsed from 156 seats to just 2, while Liberals won a majority.

Major Changes Since 1990

Party Realignments
- Conservative Merger (2003): The Reform/Alliance and PCs united under Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.
- NDP Surge (2011): Under Jack Layton, the NDP became the Official Opposition for the first time.
Fixed-Date Elections (2007)
- Before 2007, PMs could call elections at any time (often for strategic advantage).
- Now, elections are scheduled every 4 years (exceptions: minority governments can still fall early).
Minority Governments & Coalitions
- Since 2004, 5 of 7 elections produced minority governments (vs. rare pre-1990).
- The Liberals-NDP confidence deal (2022–2025) is Canada’s first quasi-coalition in decades.

What Happened in the Latest Canadian Federal Election? Who Won and by What Margin?

The most recent Canadian Federal Election was held on April 28, 2025, resulting in a surprising victory for the Liberal Party under new leader Mark Carney. Despite trailing in early polls, the Liberals secured a strong minority government.

Key Results

Party	Leader	Seats Won	Vote Share
Liberal Party	Mark Carney	168	34.2%
Conservative Party	Pierre Poilievre	144	33.5%
Bloc Québécois	Yves-François Blanchet	23	7.7%
New Democratic Party (NDP)	Jagmeet Singh	7	17.8%
Green Party	Elizabeth May	2	2.3%

Outcome: Liberal Minority Government. The Liberals fell short of a majority (needed 170+ seats) but secured enough support to govern. Conservatives won the popular vote but lost key swing ridings. Notably, both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost their seats, with Singh announcing his resignation.

The Last Term of Government: Key Events & Impact on the 2025 Canadian Federal Election

The 2019-2025 Liberal minority government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, was marked by major crises, policy shifts, and controversies—all of which shaped the 2025 Canadian Federal Election.

Key Developments (2019–2025)

COVID-19 Pandemic & Economic Fallout
- Massive spending: Over $200 billion in COVID relief (CERB, wage subsidies).
- Inflation surge: Post-pandemic inflation hit 6.8% in 2022, driving cost-of-living concerns.
Liberal-NDP Confidence Deal (2022–2025)
- Trudeau struck a deal with Jagmeet Singh’s NDP to pass budgets in exchange for:
  - Dental care expansion
  - Pharmaceutical coverage talks
- Effect: Stabilized the minority but alienated centrist voters.
Housing Crisis & Immigration Backlash
- Home prices rose 50%+ since 2015, while rent doubled in major cities.
- Record immigration (500k/year) worsened housing shortages, hurting Liberal urban support.
Climate Policy Divisions
- Carbon tax hikes faced backlash in oil-producing provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan).
- Conservative pledge: Poilievre vowed to "axe the carbon tax"—a key 2025 issue.
Scandals & Leadership Fatigue
- WE Charity controversy (2020)
- Chinese election interference allegations (2023)
- Trudeau’s declining approval (just 33% support in 2024)

Who’s Expected to Win?

As the 2025 Canadian Federal Election approached, polls and betting markets suggested a major political shift. However, the Liberals, under new leader Mark Carney, managed a surprising comeback.

Current Polling & Betting Odds (Early 2025)

Conservative Party (Pierre Poilievre)
- Polling Average: 38-42% national support.
- Key Issues: Cost of living, housing, carbon tax repeal.
- Betting Odds: 1.50 (66% implied probability) to win most seats.
Liberal Party (Mark Carney)
- Polling Average: 28-32%, with improving numbers in Ontario/BC.
- Betting Odds: 3.75 (27% chance) to retain power.
NDP (Jagmeet Singh)
- Polling: 18-20%, with potential to hold balance of power in another minority.
Bloc Québécois & Greens
- Bloc: Expected to hold 30-35 seats (dominant in Quebec).
- Greens: Struggling, may retain 1-2 seats.

Historical Context & Market Trends

The 2025 Canadian Federal Election unfolded amid economic strain, global instability, and shifting voter sentiment—factors that historically reshape political landscapes.

Historical Precedents: How Crises Reshape Canadian Elections

Wartime & Global Instability
- 1984 (Cold War Tensions, Recession) – Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives won a record 211 seats as Liberals collapsed.
- 2008 (Global Financial Crisis) – Stephen Harper’s Conservatives gained seats amid economic fears.
- 2025 Parallel: Rising geopolitical risks (e.g., U.S. election turmoil) influenced voter sentiment.
Hostile U.S. Presidency (Trump/Biden Impact)
- 2019 (Trump Trade Wars) – Trudeau won a minority despite U.S. tensions, but lost the popular vote.
- 2025 Risk: Aggressive U.S. policies strained Canada-U.S.

Safe Picks & High-Value Long Shots

With the 2025 Canadian Federal Election approaching, political betting markets are heating up. Below, we break down safe bets and high-reward long shots, along with the best platforms to wager.

🔒 Safe Bets (High Probability)

1. Conservatives Win Most Seats

Odds: 1.50 (66%)
Why? Polls show a 10+ point lead, and Poilievre dominates on key issues (housing, inflation).
Risk: Minority vs. majority uncertainty.

2. Pierre Poilievre Becomes Next PM

Odds: 1.30 (77%)
Why? Even if Conservatives get a minority, they’ll likely form a government.

3. No Majority Government

Odds: 1.80 (56%)
Why? Canada has had 5 straight minority/coalition governments since 2004.

💎 High-Value Long Shots (Unexpected but Possible)

1. Liberals Finish Third (Behind NDP)

Odds: 6.50 (15%)
Why? If Trudeau’s approval drops further, NDP could overtake in seat count.

2. Bloc Québécois Wins 40+ Seats

Odds: 4.00 (25%)
Why? Quebec is volatile—if Liberals collapse, Bloc could surge.

3. Green Party Wins 3+ Seats

Odds: 6.00 (17%)
Why? Potential upsets in BC or Atlantic ridings.

4. Justin Trudeau Resigns Before Election

Odds: 5.00 (20%)
Why? If polls worsen, Liberals may force a leadership change.🏆 Best Betting Platforms for Canadian Politics

🏆 Best Betting Platforms for Canadian Politics

Platform	Key Features	Available Markets
Bet365	Live odds, cash-out	PM winner, seat totals
PredictIt	U.S.-friendly, prop bets	Leadership contests
Pinnacle	Sharp odds, high limits	Minority/majority bets
OddsChecker	Compares odds across books	Most major election markets
Polymarket	The house of political betting	All major election markets

References

Last updated: May 6, 2025

Canadian Election Guide: Rules, History & Bets