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A Guide to US Election Betting: What to know? What to look into?

US President Election 2024

November 5, 2024 09:00 (UTC)

Joe Biden
5
2.55
Donald Trump
1.35
1.62
Robert Kennedy
51
29.0
Gavin Newsom
36
26.0
Michelle Obama
23
23.0

If you haven’t tried election betting before, you are missing out on one of the most exciting betting opportunities. In this guide, we will help you navigate the US political betting market, find the best odds, explore the legalities around it, and share tips to help you bet on US elections.

History of US Elections

The US presidential elections have historically been dynamic events with exciting twists and turns that seem straight out of Hollywood fiction. Since the late 18th century, several major upsets and surprise wins have fueled the ideal circumstances for motivated bettors. Let’s explore some of the most unpredictable results in the history of the US presidential elections to understand the current demand for political betting better.

Hayes vs Tilden (1876)

The 1876 US presidential election is one of the most disputed events in the nation’s history. New York’s Democratic governor, Samuel J. Tilden, outpolled Ohio’s Republican governor, Rutherford B. Hayes, 184 to 165, with 20 votes uncounted. These 20 electoral polls were disputed in Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

Finally, after a bitter legal and political battle, Hayes won these votes, much to the Democrats' displeasure. In 1877, the Democrats conceded the presidency to Hayes in exchange for withdrawing federal troops from the South, ending post-Civil War Reconstruction.

Truman vs Dewey (1948)

The 1948 United States presidential election is considered one of the most significant upsets in the nation’s history. Every prediction indicated Republican Thomas E. Dewey’s clear victory over incumbent president Harry S. Truman. However, Truman overcame a three-way split within the party to secure a significant triumph.

The famous erroneous headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" in the Chicago Daily Tribune encapsulates the surprise of the result. Truman's vigorous campaigning, "whistle-stop" tour, and appeal to various voter groups played crucial roles. Dewey's overly cautious and vague campaign may have alienated voters.

Nixon vs Kennedy (1960)

In 1960, Richard Nixon, the incumbent Vice President, faced John F. Kennedy, a young, charismatic, and relatively inexperienced senator. It was one of the most hotly contested elections in the US since 1916, and many considered Nixon to have the edge due to his experience. But Kennedy won by an extremely narrow margin.

The first televised presidential debates played a significant role. Kennedy's calm and confident demeanor contrasted with Nixon's tired appearance, influencing public perception. Significant upsets like these are common today, which paves the way for organized election betting.

Bush vs Gore (2000)

In 2000, Republican candidate George W. Bush, son of former president George H.W. Bush and then governor of Texas, was pitted against Democratic candidate Al Gore, the incumbent Vice President. Bush narrowly won the contest with 271 electoral votes to Gore’s 266.

The election hinged on the results in Florida, and initial counts showed Bush leading by a tiny margin. The complexity of Florida's voting system, issues with ballot design (e.g., the "butterfly ballot"), and legal interpretations of vote recount procedures turned the tide in Bush’s favor.

Trump vs Hillary (2016)

The 2016 US presidential election is one of the major upsets of modern times. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate and former Secretary of State, was widely anticipated to win. Most national polls and political analysts predicted a comfortable win for her over Donald Trump, the inexperienced Republican candidate. However, Trump won 30 states, with 306 pledging electors out of 538, shocking the entire country.

Key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which had traditionally voted Democratic in recent elections, swung in favor of Trump. His campaign's focus on populist themes, economic dissatisfaction, and the controversial use of social media played crucial roles. Additionally, Clinton faced challenges from email controversy and perceived issues of trust and likability, which led to her defeat.

Decoding the Current US Political Environment

The 2020 US presidential election was conducted during a pandemic. With an air of uncertainty looming worldwide, finances, healthcare, and COVID-19 safety were the top three concerns among voters.

The budget deficit was a critical topic, with most Americans expecting a rebound in the coming years. There were marked partisan differences in political priorities, with the Republicans focusing on economic policies, crime reduction, and immigration control. Meanwhile, the Democrats emphasized healthcare, climate change, and reducing the influence of money on politics.

The incumbent Republican president, Donald Trump, campaigned for post-COVID-19 economic reform and maintaining law and order. While a strong pre-pandemic economy marked his tenure, the Trump administration stirred significant controversies and polarized opinions.

The Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, campaigned to unite the country, address COVID-19, and implement progressive policies on healthcare, racial justice, and climate change. His running mate, Kamala Harris, became the first female, black, and Asian Vice President.

Senate Structure

As of 2024, President Joe Biden is the head of the United States. The Democrats control the Senate, while the Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Commons. The current political landscape stems from economic concerns, including inflation and steep healthcare costs.

Controversies

Mail-in ballots increased voter participation during the 2020 presidential elections, although they are marred by controversy over their security and reliability. Meanwhile, President Biden’s low 35% approval rating has recently increased the odds of Trump winning.

How Does the US Presidential Election Work?

The US presidential election is a multi-step process involving popular and electoral votes. Here is an overview of the process:

Primary Elections and Caucuses

Each party selects a presidential nominee. Each state holds a primary election, where voters cast ballots for their preferred candidates, and caucuses, where party members congregate to discuss and cast their votes. Based on the results of the primary elections and caucuses, the candidates are allocated their delegates, who represent the nominee at the party’s national convention.

National Convention

The Democratic and Republican parties hold a national convention the summer before the general elections. At this convention, the delegates vote to officially nominate their party’s president and vice president candidates. The parties use this platform to advance their policies, goals, and agendas.

General Election Campaign

Nominees for each party campaign nationwide, promoting their policies and trying to win voter support. Presidential and vice presidential debates are held to give candidates a platform to address the voters and present their views directly.

Election Day

Elections are held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every four years. US citizens over 18 who are registered to vote cast their ballots for the presidential and vice presidential candidates. Votes are tallied in each state to determine the winner of that state’s electoral votes.

Electoral College

Each state has a number of electors equal to its total number of senators and representatives in Congress. There are 538 electors in total. The candidate who wins the popular vote gets all of the state’s electoral votes, except in Nebraska and Maine, which use a proportional system. A candidate must win a majority of electoral votes (at least 270) to become president.

Electoral College Vote

Electors meet in their respective states on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their votes. The votes are sent to the vice president, who counts them in a joint session of Congress on January 6th.

Is Political Betting Legal in the United States?

Election betting is prohibited in the United States. As of 2024, US sites cannot offer it. However, US-based bettors can place political wagers on licensed off-shore platforms. If you’re interested in the 2024 election odds and want to wager on the race, we recommend signing up with a reputed online bookmaker.

At BallotBoxBet, we rank, review, and compare the top political betting sites from around the world to help you find the best platform. We highlight licensed operators with a proven track record, a penchant for safety, 24/7 support, seamless payouts, and positive user reviews. Sign up with a trusted bookmaker today to access the best US election betting odds.

How to Bet on the US Presidential Elections

When you bet on US elections, you wager on the outcome across the United States. It is a simple betting market, as the person winning the campaign is also the market winner. However, political betting doesn’t stop at wagering on the next president and vice president. You can choose from dozens of betting markets that are active throughout the year.

Every event, from state and Senate to federal votes, is available on the betting market, meaning bettors can wager on multiple events throughout the year. But before delving deeper into the nuances of US election betting odds, let’s walk you through the fundamentals of political betting.

How to Choose a Political Betting Site

To bet on US elections, you need to sign up for a reputable election betting platform. Here are five things to consider when choosing an election betting site:

Watch for up-to-date election betting odds: The political mood can swing at any time. Hence, find a betting platform that regularly updates the “odds to win election”. Bookmakers offering the latest odds reflect a fair betting landscape.

Check for diverse betting markets: Before signing up for online election betting, ensure the bookmaker offers a diverse betting market. The best betting sites provide diverse options for bettors to choose from.

Compare payout frequency: The best betting sites process withdrawal requests within 48 business hours. Find a bookmaker that accepts all the top payment methods, like bank transfers, debit/credit cards, e-wallets, and cryptocurrencies.

Find decent bonuses: Top-rated betting sites might offer fantastic bonuses, from welcome bonuses and cashbacks to reload offers and loyalty programs. You can take advantage of bonuses to boost your winning chances.

Look for low juice: Juice, or vig, is the amount by which the bookmaker adjusts the odds to ensure profits, irrespective of the outcome. Lower juice equals high odds, which is better for bettors.

Types of Political Bets

While the most popular political betting type is wagering on the winner of the presidential and vice presidential races, there are several other popular markets that you can bet on. Here are the top election betting categories in the US:

Election Outcome Bet

This is the most straightforward type of political betting, where bettors wager on the winner of a specific election, such as the US presidential election or a congregational race. You can wager on which political party will win the election or control a legislative body, such as the Senate or the House of Commons.

Electoral College Bet

Bettors can wager on the number of electoral votes a candidate will receive in the presidential election. Experienced players like to wager on state-by-state winners, especially in swing states where the “odds to win election” are usually high.

Primary and Caucus Bets

You can wager which candidate will win a party’s primary or caucus votes in each state.

Voter Turnout Bets

You can wager on the percentage of voter turnout in a specific election or in individual states.

Policy Outcome Bets

Bettors can wager on whether specific legislation will pass in a certain timeframe or whether certain initiatives will be implemented or repealed.

In-play Bets

Some platforms offer in-play election betting, where bettors can wager on election results as they unfold.

Margin of Victory Bets

You can bet on the margin by which a candidate will win, either in electoral votes or popular vote percentage.

Special Proposition Bets

This type of political betting is for specific events, such as whether a particular politician will run for office, resign, or be impeached.

Market-specific Bets

You can bet on whether a politician’s approval rating will be above or below a certain threshold at a specific time. Some betting sites accept wagers on political debates, conventions, and specific actions taken by the nominees.

Long-term Bets

Some online betting platforms accept wagers on future election outcomes, such as who will win the next presidential race.

Political Prop Bets

Political prop bets are wagers that don’t necessarily correlate with the outcome of an election but could still influence voters. For example, who will be Trump’s running mate, what are Trump VP odds, how many times will Biden say “umm” during a debate, etc.

Expert Tips for Political Betting

Election betting can be pretty profitable if you pick the right candidate at the right time. Since US elections are quite unpredictable, the odds can change overnight. Therefore, you need to be on top of the latest odds to win and gain an edge over the competition. Here are five proven tips to help you predict political markets and capitalize on various situations:

Understand Election Betting Odds

Knowing how the “odds to win election” work is the first step to political betting. In the US, the odds work on the money line. Therefore, the smaller the number, the more likely the bet will happen. Negative numbers have the maximum probability. For example, in the 2024 presidential odds, Trump could be -254 to win the election, which means you need to deposit $254 to win $100.

Stay Updated with the Latest News

The latest news is essential to calculating the “odds to win presidency”. You must know when the winds might change to make an informed bet and maximize your winning chances. For example, the Trump-Biden odds could change if the former is charged in a criminal investigation or the latter has a bad month of campaigning.

Find the Best Election Betting Odds

Compare multiple betting sites to find the best presidential election odds. Not all bookmakers offer all the betting markets or types. Find a suitable online betting platform with the highest US presidential election odds and offer your preferred betting options.

Avoid Political Bias

Don’t let personal political affiliations cloud your judgment. You must be aware of potential biases in the media and opinion polls. Although social media is a hotbed of information, you must cross-reference the information with reputable mainstream political analysts before forming an opinion. Stay rational and use logic and reasoning to decide the best bet.

Follow the Money

Monitor the amount of money each candidate raises and spends on their campaign. Greater funds often correlate with higher winning chances. Also, keep an eye on endorsements from influential political figures and organizations, which can sway public opinion and increase a candidate’s chances of winning.

Analyze Historical Trends

Past election results can often indicate voting trends and patterns. This can provide content and help you predict the outcome. Also, look at voter turnout in past elections. Irregular turnouts can influence results, especially in close competitions.

Diversify Your Bets

To minimize risk, spread your bets over different political markets, such as election outcomes, voter turnout, party control, etc. You should also consider proposition bets on specific political events or outcomes that can offer better odds if you have specialized knowledge.

Consider the Electoral College

When betting on the “odds to win 2024 election”, you can focus on the primary battleground states instead of the entire country. Pay special attention to the swing states, as the outcomes are often unpredictable and can determine the overall election result. You need a solid understanding of the electoral college system to identify a close competition.

Stick to Your Bankroll

Bankroll management is one of the most crucial skills you must acquire to thrive in election betting. Find out how much money you would be willing to lose if your wager goes sideways and stick to the number. Place intelligent wagers to increase your chances of winning and quit just before you exceed your bankroll.

Latest Presidential Election Prediction

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, all eyes are on the Trump-Biden odds. Although Trump might be the favorite to win the election, the criminal proceedings against him could pose a major upset. In which case, incumbent president Biden will be the favorite.

Therefore, when betting on the US presidential election in 2024, stay updated with the latest events to capitalize on shifting trends. Remember to be responsible when betting on political events. A surefire bet can become a loss without prior warning.

US President Election 2024

November 5, 2024 09:00 (UTC)

Joe Biden
5
2.55
Donald Trump
1.35
1.62
Robert Kennedy
51
29.0
Gavin Newsom
36
26.0
Michelle Obama
23
23.0

Ready to Bet on the Upcoming US Elections?

Political betting is getting popular in the US. As the presidential election approaches, watch for the latest election betting odds. We bring you the best political betting sites for the best experience. So, follow BallotBoxBet for the latest updates and tips for betting on US elections.

FAQ

Which is the best US election betting site?

Numerous licensed election betting sites accept US bettors. Look for a reputable website that has a wide betting market, accepts a variety of payment methods, offers 24/7 customer support, and has the trust of bettors.

How do I bet on the US presidential elections?

You must set up a bookmaker account to start wagering on the US elections. Firstly, find a reputable election betting site that accepts US bettors. Create your account, deposit the recommended amount, and claim the welcome bonus. Once your betting account is active, find a suitable betting market, calculate the odds, and place your bet.

How do I find the best presidential election odds?

BallotBoxBet finds, ranks, and compares top-rated election betting sites to help you find the most suitable platform. Read our detailed bookmaker reviews and compare the offers and bonuses to make an informed decision. We regularly update the recommended platforms so you have the best options at your fingertips.

Can betting odds predict election results?

Betting odds are an early indicator of public sentiment. When people bet on politics, they express their opinions, which indicates the general political mood. So, while betting odds don’t guarantee a win, they can come pretty close to reality.

  • Last updated: June 21, 2024