Betting on politics is a special type of betting. On sports betting, apart from side lining any personal preferences, one has to check past results of a club, evaluate its current situation as well as the opponents’ and then simply make a guess, also known as bet. On political betting the situation is very different. It’s not so much about the condition of the two teams, in the case of US election Democrats and Republicans, but about what others, the voters in this case, believe about the condition and plan of each time. Therefore, any political betting tips are very different compared to sports betting tips.
Recap of the Summer
A couple of months ago the situation looked dire for Democrats. Following the debate between Trump and Biden with the American people witnessing JRB’s poor health condition, Trump’s numbers went through the roof. Not because he did so well but because Joe Biden could no longer gather support from the same people who voted for him back in 2020. The big heads of the Democratic party finally realized their strategy of going to the elections with the sitting president wouldn't work so they switched to Kamala Harris.
US President Election 2024
That happened on the 21st of July 2024. Prior to that, on the 13th of July, Thoms Matthew Crooks shot at Donald Trump. It’s funny how this major event, an attempted assassination against a former president and a current candidate for the presidency was forgotten so quickly. DJW was super lucky with the bullets hitting his right ear and then quickly escorted off the stage but that event shouldn’t have passed so quickly off the news chart unless the establishment wanted so.
Enter Kamala
With Trump’s clear win in the debate and the failed assassination attempt, the road to return to the presidency seemed wide open but then something changed. Biden stepped down and Kamala got the Democratic ticket. Despite Kamala being one of the most unpopular vice presidents in recent US history, a popularity surge followed. With a very careful PR strategy without many uncontrolled interviews or appearances her team managed to present her as a serious alternative. Her VP pick, Tim Walz while sharing her political views, fills in her profile nicely. On one hand we have a strong independent minority woman with lengthy political experience and on her side an experienced white man. From the lens of identity politics, that’s the whole package and combined with positive media coverage, the Democratic party’s odds to win the election according to Polymarket almost matched those of the Republicans.
The situation in the Republican Camp
While DJT had very favorable odds of winning thanks to the failed assassination attempt, his performance on the first debate and most importantly the worsening financial situation in the US during the last four years, it appeared as if his strategy team lost focus.
Their pick as vice President, JD Vance didn’t seem to help at all. While he doesn’t seem to be driving people away and overall has a good record including deployment in Iraq and a term in the Senate, he doesn’t seem to be getting people on board; something that Tim Walz is doing. The Republican National convention was considered by many neutral (if not right leaning) analysts a failure. In their attempt to grow their pool of voters and to address some more traditionally Democratic voters, Trump’s campaign team seems to be turning off their base. Taking them for granted for too long has disappointed if not angered them.
The fast-right political activist Nick Fuentes has called through his channel on Rumble for a “Second Groyper War”. In brief, his aim is to pressure team Trump into returning to their original political agenda. This might seem of limited importance to some people, nevertheless it expresses the disappointment of many traditional Trump voters which he can’t afford to lose. The battleground of the coming elections aren't the cities of LA and NY which one way or another will vote Blue no matter who. The elections will be decided in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and other swing states which the Republicans lost in 2020 and to regain them, they need their base.
RFK Jr's endorsement
With those events taking place in just two months, the odds were looking balanced between the two candidates if not favorable to Kamala. What appears to be giving back to Trump the upper hand is Robert Kennedy Jr S endorsement. RFK has been running as a former Democrat but now independent candidate for a long time having managed to secure considerable voters’ support. His message attracted disenfranchised traditional Democrats or anti-system leftist and centrists. Acknowledging many differences he has with Donald Trump but that their main goal and opponents are the same he decided to abandon his political campaign and endorse DJT. This move will drive some of his old supporters away but some will follow. With a similar message, Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic candidate who ended Kamala’s campaign for the Democratic ticket in 2020, also endorsed Trump.
Those two endorsements carry a very similar message. Their impact remains to be seen but they have a potential of driving more independents and center-leaning voters to the Republicans and bookies seem to be agreeing on this.
What to Expect
There is a long way to go until November 5th and as the last couple of months showed, many things can change in the coming two months. Endorsements seem to be over so the main thing we await now is the debates with the first one being scheduled for September 10th. This might change nothing but it will give us the first image of the two candidates against one another.
Depending on both candidates’ performance in the first debate, more debates can be agreed between the two parties. That’s something you can bet on as well. My bet, aiming always high, is for three debates in total.
Who to Bet on
At the moment, Trump’s odds for winning sit around 1.5-1.6 while Kamala’s are around 2.2-2.8. It’s clear the bookies suggest Trump will be the 47th US president. Kamala taking over did result in ramping up the Democrats’ base but with RFK’s endorsement Trump appears to have a clear lead. As we said before, many things can take place in the coming two months and the debates might have a great impact.
Nevertheless, my current evaluation of the situation is that no matter how much team Kamala tries to make some noise, they simply won’t be able to win again major swing states. Slogans and interviews won’t change the vote of people who voted for Biden in 2020 from those swing states. Their financial situation has worsened a lot and this will be the main decision maker. Despite all her team’s efforts to hide it, Kamala is part of the current administration which created this dire situation and I doubt she can make them come back.
Also, in 2016 Hillary Clinton had similar if not not better advantages over Trump the same way Kamala has now; A strong experienced woman able to win the minorities’ and women’ votes. Joe Biden on the other hand managed to win a landslide victory in 2020 because he was able to come closer to people that Hillary couldn’t in the same way that Kamala can’t. Trump with his more neutral stance lately and endorsements like RFK’s will manage to “touch” those very same people. His base will one way or another support him when the time comes cause they simply have no alternative and they know it.
So my main bet for the 2024 US presidential elections remains for Trump to win the presidency.
If you are feeling gutsy, and believe in an unexpected repeat of the 1984 election you can also bet on him winning the popular vote. I wouldn’t bet on that but your decision will depend on how much you like or dislike Kamala and as we explained at the beginning, on political betting, as with sports betting, one should leave personal sentiments aside.