Whether you’re an election-betting veteran or a first-timer wondering how to bet on elections, we have got you covered. At BallotBoxBet, we will help you navigate the challenges of the political betting scene, discover popular betting events, and share proven strategies for identifying the best betting odds.
Political Bets Explained
Political betting involves wagering on political events and consequences, such as election results, referendum outcomes, or significant political developments. The process is similar to wagering on sporting events. However, you are betting on politics instead of soccer, baseball, or other sports.
Political betting markets cover extensive events, including general elections, referendums, municipal elections, prime ministerial or presidential runs, primary elections, and other leadership contests. Polling data, expert analysis, and news events typically have an impact on the betting odds.
Bettors can wager on regional or global election campaigns, such as the US presidential elections and UK general elections, from anywhere in the world. Betting options can include Democratic Presidential Nominee, Presidential Election Winner, Popular Vote Winner, Presidential Winner by State, and more.
Types of Political Betting
As in sports betting, you can bet on political events in various ways. From predicting election results to speculating on the actions of political figures, it covers a diverse range of options.
Outright Bets
An outright bet, also called a futures bet, is placed on the outcome of an event instead of individual actions within the event. Bettors must predict the results of an election, referendum, or political event in advance.
For example, betting on the winner of a prime ministerial election is an outright bet. These wagers are generally placed before the event begins. You need to wait until the election results are announced to know if you’ve won or lost the wager.
Prop Bets
Prop (short for proposition) bets, or exotic bets, are wagers placed on specific actions during an event. These secondary betting markets enable bettors to wager on a wide range of actions, such as when an elected official will end their term, whether a candidate will make a specific statement during a debate, or whether a particular action will occur during a campaign, etc.
Prop bets are getting more popular as they are more entertaining than traditional outright bets and cover a broad range of possibilities. Bettors can also use them to express more nuanced opinions about an event, making the wager even more thrilling.
Spread Betting
Spread bets are a type of wager where bettors win or lose based on the margin by which the value of a particular outcome differs from the spread of expected values listed by the betting provider. The bookmaker sets a certain “spread”, representing a range of possible outcomes for an event. The bettor wagers whether the result will be above or below that spread.
Bettors can wager on the margin of victory for a presidential candidate and the number of seats a party will win in a parliamentary election. The closer the outcome is to the spread, the larger the bettor’s payout. However, if the result is far from the spread, the bettor will lose significantly. Therefore, political spread betting is a high-risk, high-reward option more suitable for experienced bettors.
Head-to-head Bets
Head-to-head or matchup betting involves bettors wagering on the outcome of direct competition between two teams or parties. This type of betting is popular when multiple candidates are running for the same office. Therefore, the wager can be nullified if the candidates are never matched.
In a head-to-head wager on a municipal election with 5 candidates, you can bet on who will receive more votes in a specific pair, regardless of the election’s outcome. Say you wager who will receive more votes between candidates A and B, even though candidate C might win the election.
Over/Under Betting
Over/under bets, or total bets, are when the bookmaker specifies how often an event is expected to occur. Bettors need to wager whether a specific value related to the election will be higher (over) or lower (under) than the bookmaker’s predictions.
Bettors have the opportunity to place wagers on the number of seats a political party will win in a parliamentary election. The betting house can set a line, such as over/under 200 seats for Party A. The bettor must then predict whether Party A will win more than or less than 200 seats.
Over/under bets can be placed on various political events, such as a candidate’s vote share or voter turnout on election day. With this type of wager, bettors predict a specific event rather than the actual election outcome, which can be pretty exciting.
Moneyline Bets
A moneyline bet lets bettors wager on the outcome of a specific event. The process is quite similar to outright betting, with one significant difference: moneyline bets are placed on a single outcome, while outright bets are placed on the overall election result. Moneyline bets are active before an event, while outright bets must be placed months in advance.
In moneyline betting, the odds determine the payout of a successful wager. For example, if a candidate has odds of +250, a $100 winning stake returns $250 plus your initial investment. Similarly, if a candidate has odds of -150, a $150 winning stake returns $100 plus your initial investment.
Party Majority
Party majority is an election betting type where bettors predict which political party will win the majority of seats after an election. This is a popular type of political betting, as it lets bettors place straightforward wagers on the outcome of an election. Historical analytics, professional predictions, and polling data all contribute to determining the odds for each party.
In a UK parliamentary election, you can bet on whether the Labor Party or the Conservative Party will win the most seats. Similarly, in a US congregational election, you might wager on whether the Republicans or Democrats will win the majority of the seats in the Senate.
Candidates Per Party
This type of political betting involves bettors wagering on the number of candidates from a political party to win a seat in a legislative body, such as the parliament, senate, or congress, after the election results are declared. This type of bet is more detailed than party majority bets, as it focuses on the number of seats each party has won instead of the overall majority.
In a parliamentary election, you can wager on the number of seats the Labor Party, Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats, and other parties will win. The betting range can be Conservative Party: 301-350 seats, Liberal Democrats: 200-250 seats, etc. Candidates-per-party betting is more challenging as it involves predicting the correct number of seats rather than which party wins by a bigger margin.
Exit Poll
Exit poll betting involves wagering on the results of exit polls conducted during an election. Exit polls are real-time voter surveys as they leave a polling station. This data is compiled to predict the outcome of an election before the results are officially declared. Exit poll bets can include the number of seats each party is projected to win, the percentage of vote share received by a party or candidate, or other specific events.
The betting odds depend on exit poll results and may change as additional data becomes available. Exit poll betting is quite exciting but somewhat risky since the odds change in real-time. Further, exit polls aren’t always accurate, and bookmakers stay one step ahead with predictions compared to the exit poll results.
Re-election
Re-election betting involves wagering whether a party or political figure, such as the president, prime minister, or other leaders, will be re-elected in a future election. Bettors can bet on incumbent candidates who are eligible for re-election and are running for an office term. Re-election betting is similar to party majority betting, with one exception: it focuses on the outcome of a re-election campaign.
Bettors can wager if the incumbent candidate will continue for another term or if a challenger will unseat them. Odds for re-election betting depend on approval ratings, political analysis, and historical data leading up to the re-election campaign. It is an exciting betting type and an excellent way to profit from political predictions.
How to Bet on Politics
Fortunately, election betting isn’t complicated. Below, we break down the process into 5 easy steps to help you place your first political wager.
Step 1: Find the Right Political Betting Site
The best political betting sites offer a range of betting types and competitive odds. Find a reputable betting site to bet on US/UK/EU politics. Most political betting sites offer US betting. However, only a handful of reliable election betting websites offer political betting in Canada, Ireland, Australia, and other nations. Feel free to check out our list of bookmakers to explore the best platforms.
Step 2: Create Your Betting Account
Once you find the ideal political betting site, create your account. Navigate to the “Register/Sign Up” button at the top of the screen and fill out the form. You will need to submit personal details like your name, date of birth, address, phone number, country, zip code, and password. Ensure all the details are correct, since some betting sites might verify the data before activating your account.
Step 3: Claim the Welcome Bonus
Once your account goes live, you can start wagering. But first, don’t forget to claim the welcome bonus. The top political betting sites offer fantastic welcome bonuses to boost your bankroll. Sign in to your betting account, find the promotions tab, and claim your welcome bonus. Some websites will email the bonus code. So, check your inbox to claim your free bonus.
Step 4: Place Your First Bet
You will need to deposit a minimum amount to start wagering. Deposit your preferred amount using any payment method available on the betting site. Most betting platforms accept debit/credit cards, bank transfers, mobile wallets, cryptocurrencies, and more. Your deposit will shortly be reflected in your betting account. Find your favorite betting market, click on the odds, and add your selection to the bet slip. Double-check your selection and place your first bet.
Step 5: Withdraw Your Winnings
You can withdraw your winnings when you accumulate a significant sum and meet the wagering requirements. To withdraw, navigate to the finances section on your account dashboard, select the amount you want to withdraw with your preferred withdrawal method, and click transfer. The amount should be reflected in your bank account within the stipulated deadline.
Political Betting Markets
Presidential elections are the most popular political betting market globally because the entire country, and sometimes most of the world, will be watching them. Think of the US or Canadian presidential elections or the UK general elections, which determine the composition of the House of Commons and the next UK government.
General elections, leadership contests, and referendums are popular betting markets globally. These markets tend to attract a lot of attention from players worldwide due to their potential for high payouts. Moreover, political betting markets are volatile, with odds shifting rapidly based on polling data, breaking news, and other incomprehensible factors.
Local betting laws also play a critical role in global political betting preferences. For instance, political betting is largely prohibited in North America, while political betting sites thrive in the EU and Australia. Hence, US and Canadian punters need to bet using off-shore political betting sites.
The story is quite different on the other side of the pond. The UK has a well-established political betting market, as do France, Germany, and Ireland. Therefore, finding a reliable political bookmaker in the EU is relatively straightforward. The situation is pretty similar down under, where the Australian Communications and Media Authority regulates political betting markets.
Popular Political Betting Targets
As the global political landscape continues to evolve, with each nation implementing unique election protocols, new betting opportunities are arising. Here are the most popular political betting targets worldwide that you can consider wagering on:
US Presidential Elections
The US presidential election is closely followed by bettors worldwide, making it a grand event for political betting. Since the odds change as election day approaches, potential payouts are more significant in the early days.
US Senate Elections
US Senate elections are equally popular among political bettors as there is room for multiple betting types. With 100 seats in the US Senate, bettors can place any number of wagers, from moneyline and over/under bets to candidates per party, party majority, prop bets, and spread bets.
UK General Elections
The UK general election is equivalent to the US presidential election. It is a major event, offering numerous betting opportunities and competitive odds. Unlike the US president, who serves for a 5-year fixed tenure, the UK prime minister could remain in office indefinitely as long as the party maintains a majority in the House of Commons. This also creates an excellent opportunity for re-election betting.
French Presidential and Legislative Elections
The French presidential and legislative elections are significant events that attract a lot of attention from political bettors around the world. The presidential election, held every five years, determines the leader of one of Europe's key powers. The legislative elections, which usually follow closely after the presidential elections, decide the composition of the National Assembly. Betting on these elections can be particularly exciting due to the volatile political landscape in France.
Major Elections within the EU
Elections within the European Union offer a diverse array of betting opportunities, given the unique political climates of its member countries. Major national elections, such as the German Bundestag elections, the Italian and Spanish general elections, capture the attention of bettors. These elections significantly influence the EU's policies and direction, making them a hotbed for political betting.
Additionally, the European Parliament elections are an important event that determines the composition of the parliament. This pan-European vote affects EU legislation and policy, presenting several betting possibilities, from overall party performances to individual member state results.
Australian Federal Elections
Like the UK general elections, the Australian federal election decides who controls the House of Representatives. This popular betting event offers numerous opportunities for wagering on specific events. For instance, Australia has 151 parliamentary seats, meaning bettors can place outright, over/under, spread bets, and more.
Mayoral Elections
Betting on local political events like mayoral elections is quite popular across the globe, including in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, France, Ireland, and other European countries. Influential candidates, such as popular politicians, business executives, entrepreneurs, and nonprofit organizational heads, often vie for this coveted position, making it the perfect playground for political betting.
Referendums
Election betting goes beyond betting on parties and individuals, with referendums being the next popular candidate. These wagers could be on any popular debate subject, such as constitutional changes, political decisions, or membership in international organizations. Bettors wager on the result of the referendum.
Winning Odds vs. Wisdom of the Crowd
Bookmakers use cold, hard facts and analytical data to predict the results of political events. While data is the benchmark for calculating the odds of a stake, some bettors prefer to trust the crowd's wisdom. Let’s explore both POVs and decipher the pros and cons of each.
Winning Odds
Winning odds define the probability of different outcomes of a political event, such as elections or referendums. Several factors, including polling data, historical trends, news stories, and expert analysis, help bookmakers determine the odds. Since the odds are backed by tangible proof, most bettors rely on them to make informed decisions.
Wisdom of the Crowd
The wisdom of the crowd defines the collective opinion of a group of individuals who rely on instincts rather than data. If many people bank on a particular candidate to win the elections, others assume the candidate will perform well and follow suit without validating the data. The main issue with following people blindly is that bias and false information can influence the crowd.
Below, we compare the main differences between winning odds and the wisdom of the crowd for clarity:
| Winning Odds | Wisdom of the Crowd |
|---|---|
| Bookmakers assign probabilities to different outcomes based on data. | The idea is that the collective opinion of a group of individuals is often more accurate than an individual’s opinion. |
| Based on polling data, expert analysis, and historical trends. | Based on the aggregate opinions or betting patterns of a group of bettors. |
| Influenced by several factors, including expert opinions and betting patterns. | Influenced by the crowd’s opinions, biases, and behavior. |
| It is accurate but may not always reflect the true likelihood of an outcome. | It can be accurate due to the diversity of opinions in the crowd, but it can also be influenced by bias, misinformation, or groupthink. |
| Used by bettors to assess potential returns and make informed betting decisions. | Used by bettors to gauge the collective opinion of other bettors and influence their own decisions. |
| Bookmakers odds on the outcome of an election or referendum. | Betting patterns indicate strong support for a particular candidate or outcome. |
Political Betting Sites
Finding the ideal betting platform is crucial, especially for beginners. Here are our favorite political betting sites to help you start your betting journey online:
Smarkets
Smarkets is our top pick overall. The platform is easy to use, offers excellent betting market selection, competitive odds, and detailed analytics to help bettors make informed decisions. In addition, the bookmaker accepts a wide range of payment methods and promises quick payouts.
BetUS
One of the best political betting sites for North Americans, BetUS offers exciting betting opportunities and fast payouts. The platform accepts wagers on all the major political events globally and offers competitive odds.
Bovada
Bovada is our top pick for beginners. The platform offers a long list of betting markets in North America, the EU, Australia, and more. Bettors also get competitive odds, hassle-free payouts, and exciting bonuses.
22Bet
One of the most popular election betting sites globally, 22Bet delivers a high-quality betting experience. Loaded with tons of betting options, the platform offers the most competitive odds for every significant political event worldwide, including elections and referendums.
Stake
Stake is an excellent political betting site for crypto enthusiasts. The venue accepts all the top blockchain tokens and promises quick withdrawals and 24/7 support. The website offers a rich betting market selection and is suitable for both amateur and veteran bettors.
Betfair
Having been in the online betting scene for over two decades, Betfair is a well-established bookmaker. The operator also offers betting exchange services, in addition to sports and political betting options.
Paddy Power
Licensed by multiple regulatory bodies, Paddy Power stands out for its user-friendly layout and excellent mobile compatibility. Further, the betting site features a dedicated political betting section with many options.